Transport for NSW provides projections of population and dwellings at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for NSW. The latest version is Travel Zone Projections 2022 (TZP22), released November 2022.

The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions.

This new version TZP22 is an update on the previously published TZP19

The TZP22 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables:

Estimated Resident Population
Occupied Private Dwellings
Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex
Population in Non-Private Dwellings

The projections in this release, TZP22, are presented annually 2016 to 2026 and five-yearly from 2026 to 2066, and are in TZ16 geography.

Please note, TZP22 is based on best available data as at early to mid 2022. It includes the impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic and does not include results from the ABS 2021 Census as the relevant data had not been released at the time of TZP22 production.

Key Data Inputs used in TZP22:

2022 NSW Population projections data – NSW Department of Planning, Industry & Environment
2022 NSW Household and Dwelling projections data – NSW Department of Planning, Industry & Environment
2016 Census data - Australian Bureau of Statistics (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by Mesh Block, historical household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence)
The 2022 NSW Population, Household and Dwelling projections do not include 2021 Census data as the relevant data has not been released at the time of TZP22 production.

For a summary of the TZP22 Projections method please refer to the TZP22 Factsheet

For more detail on the projection process please refer to the TZP22 Technical Guide

Additional land use information for workforce and employment as well as Travel Zone boundaries and concordance files are also available for download on the Open Data Hub.

A visualisation of the population projections is available on the Transport for NSW Website under Reference Information.

Cautions
The TZP22 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions and population and economic projections.

The projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure, but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.

TZP22 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns.
The TZP22 outputs represent a point in time set of projections (as at early to mid 2022).
The projections are not government targets.
Travel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results.
As a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only.
More specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub.
Caution is advised when comparing TZP22 with the previous set of projections (TZP19) due to addition of new data sources for the most recent years, and adjustments to methodology.

Further cautions and notes can be found in the TZP22 Technical Guide

Population Projections